| RES | 4694.0 | 5000.0 | 5138.5/5356.0 |
| SUP | 3900.0 | 3521.5/88.5 | 3231.0 |
02 Jun - 3rd target met at 5138.5, raise risk to 4804.0.
19 May - 2nd target met at 5000.0
17 Apr - 1st target met at 4694.0
Trade opened on 6th April at 4458.5.
Bearish signals for the 1st Quarter were confirmed as investor confidence for the DAX continued to deteriorate for a 5th negative Quarter in a row and to a new 5 ½ year low at close to 3500.0. However PIA signals, highlighting excessive divergence in momentum indicators, have also identified at least an interim low in March which has come from close to 3521.5, a 78% correction to the entire 2003-2007 bull-run (2187.0-8253.0). This has seen confidence return and post 4 bullish up-weeks in a row for the 1st time since Sep 2007 and at the same time break the falling trend of failed weekly rallies that has dominated sentiment since September of last year. Along with this, statistically the market is about to start posting a higher % of higher weekly highs than lower lows for the 1st time since November 2007, another signal reflecting the growing confidence of investors. While this changes the outlook for the 2nd Quarter to bullish above 3900.0, the rally is still signalled as a temporary correction to the losses since the 2007 peak, so the call is held with caution. The initial target to take profit is at 4694.0, February high, a break here improving sentiment to probably no further than 5000.0, the monthly bear trend formed since the 2007 peak.
The risk however would be for the recovery to be weaker than signalled – losses back through 3900.0 would be negative, exposing sentiment to 3521.5/88.5, the 78% Fibonacci as well as this year’s base and then towards 3231.0, the low trade made in Oct 2003.
19 May - 2nd target met at 5000.0
17 Apr - 1st target met at 4694.0
Trade opened on 6th April at 4458.5.
Bearish signals for the 1st Quarter were confirmed as investor confidence for the DAX continued to deteriorate for a 5th negative Quarter in a row and to a new 5 ½ year low at close to 3500.0. However PIA signals, highlighting excessive divergence in momentum indicators, have also identified at least an interim low in March which has come from close to 3521.5, a 78% correction to the entire 2003-2007 bull-run (2187.0-8253.0). This has seen confidence return and post 4 bullish up-weeks in a row for the 1st time since Sep 2007 and at the same time break the falling trend of failed weekly rallies that has dominated sentiment since September of last year. Along with this, statistically the market is about to start posting a higher % of higher weekly highs than lower lows for the 1st time since November 2007, another signal reflecting the growing confidence of investors. While this changes the outlook for the 2nd Quarter to bullish above 3900.0, the rally is still signalled as a temporary correction to the losses since the 2007 peak, so the call is held with caution. The initial target to take profit is at 4694.0, February high, a break here improving sentiment to probably no further than 5000.0, the monthly bear trend formed since the 2007 peak.
The risk however would be for the recovery to be weaker than signalled – losses back through 3900.0 would be negative, exposing sentiment to 3521.5/88.5, the 78% Fibonacci as well as this year’s base and then towards 3231.0, the low trade made in Oct 2003.
Alerts
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