Mon 30th Jul 2007

3 Month

EURUSD

Buy Above 1.3264

75%

RES 1.3900 1.4160 1.4535
SUP 1.3264 1.3002 1.2868

Trading in EURUSD has been dominated for more than 5-years by a trend of investors buying the currency pair on any significant dips. This demand has been further emphasised by trend following programs (DMI) which have shown consistently throughout those 5-years investor demand taking EURUSD to a greater percentage of higher highs as measured against lower lows. This years price activity has continued this trend, building upon the strong gains seen during 2006 and taking prices to the most positive levels traded since 1995. While recent weeks have seen some profit taking develop, it remains likely that investors will buy any dips and the outlook for the coming 3-months continues to be bullish while above 1.3264. The immediate target is now 1.3900, a projected Fibonacci target with buying through that point then focusing on 1.4160, the high from October 1995, then that year’s 1.4535 peak. The risk to this bullish forecast is a move below 1.3264, June's low, indicating that long term demand for the Euro has stalled, with trading more likely to have a neutral bias.

Alerts

  • AUDUSD - forms bullish daily Head&Shoulders - expect gains
  • USDCHF - Trades to new 2010 low
Graph
Intraday Up Mild Buy above 1.3693 (65%)
Week Neutral This week’s call: Trade a break of a 1.0600 – 1.0865 range. (80%)
3 Month Up Buy Above 1.3264 (75%)